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Daniel Kahneman: Beware the ‘inside view’

Daniel KahnemanI find it funny that just Monday I wrote a blog post called, “4 Non-UX Books for UX & Product Designers,” which included Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” and just today I discovered there is a small excerpt from his book reprinted by McKinskey. In the excerpt from his new book, he “recalls how an inwardly focused forecasting approach once led him astray, and why an external perspective can help executives do better.”

For those needing an additional nudge, besides my recommendation, download and read the excerpt (pdf), which is, in my humble opinion, a paltry sampling of this Nobel laureate’s wit, wisdom, and insight.

Here are some recent reviews of Thinking, Fast & Slow – relatively decent reviews from people that clearly aren’t winning any prizes for writing creative headlines.

Business Week

Salon: The Effect Effect

Wall Street Journal: Why the Grass is Always Greener

New York Times: Two Brains 

 

1025 AW11: Fashion’s Bleak Intensity of Desire

“The Eternal Return as experience, and as the deterritorialized circuit of all the cycles of desire.” “Anti-Oedipus,”  Gilles Deleuze, Félix Guattari

1205 AW11 by Paula Gerbase

Soundtrack: Purity Ring, Belispeak

It takes that sort of bleak intensity to comprehend the American Gothic vision. What seems most interesting is that while the famous Grant Wood’s American Gothic painting is what one’s mind, and Google’s image algorithm, drifts to, though it is not at all Gothic in any art history sense, the painting did come to represent the bleak depression-era ethos of austerity, pragmatism, and simplicity, which seems to accrete across the imagery of the 1205 AW11 line designed by Paula Gerbase.

1205 AW11 by Paula Gerbase

 

If fashion becomes a mirror, and the experience of fashion media exists in a secondary media stage, where instead of the viewer creating the concept of Identity and Other within the mirror, she creates a concept that is neither completely Other nor Self – an Other which one can identify with, such as Gerbase’s new line – a territory completely recognizable given the global economic condition of the last three years. Further, whilst the collection flows between feminine and masculine, never completely either, there is a cold sexual tension that arises in the positioning between the terse androgyny of the models – a tension needing discover a new release different from the profligate excesses of consumption of recent decades.

1205 AW11 by Paula Gerbase

The 1205 book states that it “was spurned by a need for timeless and utilitarian clothing. The collections feature menswear and womenswear with a strong emphasis on the idea of a unisex wardrobe – the intriguing balance between femininity and masculinity.” One can’t but wonder if this mirror is reflecting back a shared understanding, like American Gothic, of a need to return to simplicity, austerity, and prudence in the wake of recent economic excesses.

1205 AW11 by Paula Gerbase

 

How social technologies are extending the organization

McKinsey’s fifth annual survey on the way organizations use social tools and technologies finds that they continue to seep into many organizations, transforming business processes and raising performance.

How social technologies are extending the organization

“Companies are improving their mastery of social technologies, using them to enhance operations and exploit new market opportunities—key findings of our fifth annual survey on these tools and technologies, in which we asked more than 4,200 global executives how organizations deploy them and the benefits they confer. When adopted at scale across an emerging type of networked enterprise and integrated into the work processes of employees, social technologies can boost a company’s financial performance and market share, respondents say, confirming last year’s survey results.”

Some of the findings are very interesting, for instance, “We found statistically significant correlations between self-reported corporate performance metrics and certain business processes that networked enterprises use (Exhibit 5),” as well as, “Another key performance measure, self-reported operating-margin improvements, correlated positively with the reported percentage of employees whose use of social technologies was integrated into their day-to-day work.”

All in all, I found it an interesting, if brief, report that offered some interesting and quantified insights into how enterprises using social tools are gaining competitive advantage.

Benefits remain consistent over time

Benefits remain consistent over time

 

Download report here.

4 Essential Non-UX Books for UX & Product Designers

“When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.”

― Nassim Nicholas TalebThe Black Swan

“Most of what people call “insight”, garnered from surveys, focus groups, contextual inquiry, usability tests, and quantitative data analysis, is complete horseshit.” – Me

How often, when debating around a conference room table about a particular product concept or feature, does a member of the team cite an observation, no matter how fleeting, from a usability test participant the previous day? How much credence was given to that observation? Why did it seem like it carried more weight in the team’s decision-making process, even if it was a single observation that may have contradicted observations from 20 previous usability tests? Why is that? What cognitive biases are at play here?

I am a tireless advocate for doing solid research and analysis to inform decision making about the products and features we choose to design, and I am stating quite emphatically that from my observations most user experience and product designers are doing it wrong. Between the cognitive biases we bring to contextual inquiry, focus groups and usability tests to our blatant ignorance of statistics we carry like an albatross when reviewing quantitative data – we’re doing it wrong and wasting a shit-load of money in the process. Worst of all, we think we’re doing it right and we’re proud that – hey – we’re doing solid research whilst all those other schmucks are either doing genius design or stakeholder-driven design such that we don’t even understand how bad our decisions-making is. It gets trickier, because in the previous sentence, I said we don’t even know how bad they are because of 2 more cognitive biases: post-purchase rationalization, that is – we create a false narrative of the benefit to the time and effort we just spent doing research, even when faced with the Semmelweis reflex, which is the tendency to reject new data which contradicts a previously held paradigm (that user research is valuable).

The reason we tend to give more credence to an observed behavior in yesterday’s usability test relative to the previous 20 tests is what is called the Recency Bias, and it’s one of many cognitive biases that plague product design. Simply put, Recency Bias is “a cognitive bias that results from disproportionate salience of recent stimuli or observations — the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events.” There are many more. I think there is enough juice here to write an article on cognitive biases in conducting user research and usability testing – but this isn’t that article.

Here is a different problem. How often, when a team needs to make a decision about an A/B test of two slightly different concepts that have been in the market for six weeks, did people make positive and persuasive arguments that one design “won” over another, even with no understanding of the significance of the sample size? If your company is good enough to be doing serious quantitative analysis to aid in decision making, why does it seem reasonable to essentially toss a dart at a board?

“Things always become obvious after the fact.” – Just about everyone.

This fall, I choose to read 4 books not at all about user experience design; or usability testing; or god-forbid – the new cult of “lean startups,” a problematic concept/methodology/religion (whatever), that enjoys the benefit of few peer-reviewed case studies and zero scientific basis as to it’s purported efficacy in creating innovative products or companies. Such is the beauty of faith - evidence need not be an incentive for the faithful to fall on their knees in awe. Karl Popper would roll over in his grave.

But back to the books – I choose to read 4 that had nothing to do with design per se, but everything to do with how we make decisions, what is the nature of our decision making process, and how ignorant are we to our own cognitive biases that both rule or daily lives, and yet are almost completely opaque to us. These books include two by a popular writer on neuroscience, the godfather of behavioral economics, and a proprietary stock trader turned philosopher of science. I recommend reading all four at the same time, or at least in quick succession because in many ways the build on each other.

Here are my four recommendations for your holiday reading. All are quite excellent, and will make you rethink how you make decisions about everything from usability testing to prioritizing feature designs to the simple cognitive biases that govern your everyday life. You will thank me for it. I have included book reviews from more eloquent reviewers than myself, also called the “appeal to authority fallacy,” since none of the reviewers are authorities on math, statistics, behavioral economics, or neuroscience.” :-)

How We Decide, Jonah Lehrer

Fooled By Randomness, Nassim Taleb

Proust Was A Neuroscientist, Jonah Lehrer

Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman

Hidden Radio

Industrial designers John Van Den Nieuwenhuizen from Australia and Vitor Santa Maria from Brazil have collaborated to design the HiddenRadio, which is currently being funded through Kickstarter. Their approach to their work is simple product design that is both innovative and intuitive.

The minimal HiddenRadio & Bluetooth Speaker design connects and captivates the user through its intuitive functionality. When asleep it hides all its functions. To turn it on you simply twist and lift the cap. The further you lift the cap the more internal volume is created and will amplify to over 80dB of crystal clear sound. Although it offers Bluetooth technology, if you don’t have a Bluetooth device, a 3.5mm audio input plug is available. The battery life is also an impressive feature, offering over 30 hours of power.

A beautiful, unobtrusive and simple device, which I think is well worth backing.

On the Semiotics of Fashion Branding & Advertising

Soundtrack: Shahrooz: Raoofi Watching Stars

“Fashion is never anything but an amnesiac substitution of the present for the past” – Roland Barthes

Perhaps nowhere except in the semiotics of fashion advertising is the use of transportation, narrative, dreamworld, and experience design more sophisticated in its hegemonic beauty.





Further, fashion advertising is an excellent example of identity-image producing media where signifier and signified collapse. The nature of the fashion object is tied directly to our manufacture of identity – those objects which we encase and adorn our bodies for public consumption – and fashion is acknowledged as a co-created cultural language of “style”. In the realm of Haute Couture fashion advertising, those products and identity-image advertisements at the top of the social-economic spectrum: brands such as Dolce Gabbana, Gucci, Alexander McQueen, Prada, etc, media such as runway shows, Vogue, Allure – the goal of producing an attractive identity product is pursued with an affluence of money and artistic talents drawn internationally to create the most emotive and entrancing hyperreal simulacra within those media channels.

I found these articles to be exceptionally well researched in articulating a stance on the cultural implications of fashions’ highly developed grammar of sign systems within advertising and how that relates to identity manufacture. I hope you find them equally fascinating.

“Fashion is a form of ugliness so intolerable that we have to alter it every six months.” – Oscar Wilde

PRADA

Speaking of Fashion: Consumers’ Uses of Fashion Discourses and the Appropriation of Countervailing Cultural Meanings

This article explores the ways that consumers use fashion discourse to inscribe their consumption behaviors in a complex ideological system of folk theories about the nature of self as it relates to and exists within the context of society. Verbatim texts of 20  interviews concerning consumers’ perceptions and experiences of fashion are interpreted through a hermeneutic (interpretive) process with specific consideration given to gender and identity issues. Whereas critics of consumer culture frequently argue that fashion discourses enshroud consumer perceptions in a common hegemonic outlook, the authors analysis suggests that this ideological system offers a myriad of countervailing interpretive standpoints that consumers combine, adapt, and juxtapose to fit the conditions of their everyday lives. Read Article.

Narrative and Persuasion in Fashion Advertising

Narrative transportation—to be carried away by a story—has been proposed as a distinct route to persuasion. But as originally conceived, narrative transportation is unlikely to occur in response to advertisements, where persuasive intent is obvious and consumer resistance is expected. The authors of this article analyze fashion ads to show how narrative transportation can nonetheless be a possible response to ads, if specific aesthetic properties are present, most notably when grotesque imagery is used. The authors then situate narrative transportation as one of five modes of engaging fashion advertising, each of which serves as a distinct route to persuasion. They explain how aesthetic properties of ads call forth different modes of engagement and explore how grotesque imagery can lead to either narrative transportation or immersion. As routes to persuasion, transportation and immersion work by intensifying brand experience rather than boosting brand evaluation. Read Article.

Fashion Photography as Semiotics: Barthes and the Limites of Classification

Semiotics, the system of signs asserting meaning by way of language and image, proves to be enormously relevant and valuable when looking at fashion photography as a means of communication. The author argues that fashion photography speaks both to the reality and illusion of garments and of bodies, and in deconstructing how these elements are organized and presented, a new language and system emerges from the photographic work. The author explores how Roland Barthes places fashion photography within a semiological framework, applying semiotic structure and rationale to the genre as a system of communication for symbols and signs present within any given image. Read Article.

The Counterfeit Body: Fashion Photography and the Deceptions of Femininity, Sexuality, Authenticity, and Self in the 1950s, 60s and 70s

Fashion, as it is actualized and spoken through the medium of photography, represents some of the most beautiful and hideous elements of culture and society. Invariably, fashion photography pictures and proffers standards of beauty, self and display that, by sheer style and omnipresence, overwhelm common sense and rational thought. The innate contradictions within fashion photography and the larger industry it represents burden the form with criticism. This precarious position fashion photography exists in endangers the possibility of looking at the form outside a purely non-decorative or aesthetic framework, and further, problematizes the reconciliation of a place for its valid study in the academic schema. Read Article.

Driving User Participation with Game Dynamics

Rajat Paharia, founder and Chief Production Officer of Bunchball, discusses participation engines and the use of game dynamics and behavioral economics to incentivize and motivate user participation on the web.

 

Momento Mori

“All photographs are memento mori. To take a photograph is to participate in another person’s (or thing’s) mortality, vulnerability, mutability. Precisely by slicing out this moment and freezing it, all photographs testify to time’s relentless melt.”

Design Studio and Agile UX : Process and Pitfalls

We are often asked how and when Design Studio should be used in a startup or enterprise whose product team embraces agile. We hope this article answers some questions about how to effectively use Design Studio (as well as variations on it), and to avoid potential pitfalls so those practicing some flavor of agile UX will be better armed to solve difficult problems in their work.

The description of Design Studio in The Design of Design Studio was meant to serve as the canonical example, and is best suited for the beginning of a significant series of projects focused around one theme, or a set of themes. The output of such a design studio session may span many iterations. There are, however, many variations of Design Studio that can be employed to good effect for the smaller problem spaces within agile processes. For example, a Scrum team may need to explore a more targeted problem space that they identify during iteration planning prior to a sprint.

This should not imply, however, that we use Design Studio during what is sometimes called “Iteration 0,” although there is no reason why it couldn’t be used then. We don’t happen to follow the “staggered sprints” model popularized by Desiree Sy and Lynn Miller at Autodesk. Instead, we solve problems as whole Scrum teams and bring the ideation, design, and development phases as close as possible to the same kickoff point so the concepts can inform story-gathering and estimation sessions.

Read the article on UXMagazine

Recursus Intra-Subjectivity: Redux

Audio: Secret Machines, First Wave Contact.

Pretense: an artful or simulated semblance; “under the guise of friendship he betrayed them”

The rape of [the] creative praxis must bear in mind certain maxims formulated by SemanticWill in a punch-drunken stupor:

  1. Subject matter should be broadly empathetic.
  2. The Stance should be direct and uncomplicated.
  3. An Argument should be compulsively refined.
  4. Emphasis should focus on a minimum of three levels of abstracted meaning and correlations, preferably in more than 3 dimensions.

Art not ashamed to publish thy disease?”
–Sir Philip Sidney, Astrophel and Stella, 1591

As of this date, there are no known viruses which can infect merely through reading a mail message.
–U.S. Computing Incident Advisory Capability Report, Dec. 6, 1994

I don’t think this means we all hope to be viral (certainly not like some social media douchebags). I was thinking this morning about the ideas related to the “Wisdom of Crowds,” and that there should exist a steady theoretical tradition of looking at crowds as the self-fulfilling prophecy of a meta-species. As autonomous emergent entities existing independent from the cognitive processes of the individuals it is made of; capable of consciously acting in the world. When looking for factual proof of the existence of such a sim-active, instead of viral-like adaptive, intelligence, one can only start by assuming that this entity must produce some observable patterns. Patterns we can isolate and possibly decode.

Many poets, and all mystic and occult writers, in all ages and countries, have declared that behind the visible are chains on chains of conscious beings, who are not of heaven but of earth, who have no inherent form but change according to their whim, or the mind that sees them. You cannot lift your hand with influencing and being influenced by hoards. The visible world is merely their skin.
[William Butler Yeats – 1888]

Words for Tuesday 04.19.11:

Praxis is the process by which a theory or lesson becomes part of lived experience through a cycle of action-reflection-action [1]. “It’s about how we live. It’s about everything we do; it surrounds us.”[2]

Incunabulum, n. An incunabulum is a book, single sheet, or image that was printed — not handwritten — before the year 1501 in Europe.

Ecphrasis, v. Ecphrasis or ekphrasis (from Greek ek out + phrasis speaking, verb ekphrazein, to proclaim or call an inanimate object by name) in modern times is taken to be the graphic, often dramatic description of a visual work of art while anciently the word applied to a description of any things, persons, or even human experiences.

Example of Ecphrasis:

Thetis’ silver feet took her to Hephaestus’ house,
A mansion the lame god had built himself…
She found him at his bellows, glazed with sweat
As he hurried to complete his latest project,
Twenty cauldrons on tripods to line his hall
With golden wheels at the base of each tripod.
….He was getting these ready,
Forging the rivets with inspired artistry.
[Homer, Iliad, 18:398, Lombardo translation
]

What is [it[being SemanticWill's article[text exhibiting patterns]]]?

An article by the personification|persona SemanticWill should not be defined. Defining a SemanticWill article would be like defining what chemicals  cascading through synapses is, or what a codex of insanity is, or what an experimental hypermedia art installation is. “I do not like that presumptuous Philosophy which in its rage of explanation allows no static signification; no symbol representative of the vast Terra Incognita of Knowledge, for the Facts and Agencies of Mind and matter reserved for future Explorers.” – Remix of Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Perhaps it would be better to |de|-define the x,y,z of what I write. It is not a diary, it is not dated, it is not autobiography per se, it is not a dreambook. It is the recursive processing of meta-narrative inscribed within a conceptually simulated noospace. It is the intertextuality of a Mendelbrot. It is not the underlying algorithm, it is the recognized pattern of lies and truths woven together. Pattern recognition, I was thinking, is useful when you think about the nonlinearity of the creative process. Which, of course, reminds me of something Toffler wrote, the great cybernetic fallacio-mechanism that he is:

“Today, the technologies of deception are developing more rapidly than the technologies of verification. Which means we can use a television camera, plus special effects, plus computers, etc. to falsify reality so perfectly that nobody can tell the difference. And the consequences of that eventually could be a society in which nobody believes, everybody knows that seeing is not believing, and nobody believes anything. With the exception of a small minority that decides to believe one thing fanatically. And that’s a dangerous social/cultural situation.

One of the consequences of living through a period like this, which is in fact a revolutionary period, is that the entire structure of society and the processes of change become nonlinear. And nonlinearity I think is defined almost by the statement that ‘small inputs can have large consequences.’ While large inputs can sometimes have very small consequences. That also means in a political sense that very small groups can, under a given set of circumstances, achieve power. And that is a very threatening idea for anything remotely resembling what we believe to be democracy. So we’re going into a period, I think, of high turbulence and considerable danger, along with enormous possibilities.”
[interview with Alvin Toffler, in Modulations: A History of Electronic Music]

The reader returns to a previously-visited node of writing and eventually departs along a new path. Some of the things I write create recurrence and so express the presence of structure. Kolb’s “Socrates In The Labyrinth” discusses the role of in argumentation-augmentation, showing how hypertext cycles emerge naturally from traditional argumentative forms. Cyclical repetition also modulates the experience of the hypertext, emphasizing key points while relegating others to the background. I may break a cycle automatically by using relative or conditional links, or may use breadcrumbs to guide the user to depart along a new trajectory. Relying on breadcrumbs to break cycles is far more common in other’s writing than mine, but that’s because I prefer to hold the reader captivated while vultures peck at their eyes.

The reader rejoins a previously-visited part of the hypertext corpus after consuming me and continues along a previously-traversed trajectory through one or more spaces by means of tags, before the cycle is broken. Revisiting a previously-visited article to read the comments, moreover, may itself provide a fresh experience because the new context (introduced by the reader by commenting, or the interchange with the author) can change the meaning of a passage even though the words remain the same. Measured and planned repetition of themes across comments, articles, connections, can reinforce the writer’s message; recursive cycles thus lend themselves not only to a variety of simulated effects, but also to familiar writerly motifs:

Hallucination was the meta-recursive process made manifest, deja vu, compulsion, break-beat, ripple, canon, isobar, daydream, and theme and variation…Of time-shift there is the death of uber-morosoph SemanticWill as writer and the near disintegration of the manufactured persona…but before the self [dis] integrates, it is killed off so that the persona itself can supercede by means of simulation. [Cycle]

This blog is not a web site per se, it is not even writing if you prefer to see it that way, but writing seems well-suited to the ‘Idea of This Article,’ as does code. My article’s are more a kind of progressive codework (as lived reality) than manifested outcome.

“Hypertext for the writer was like the poster of Dali for the artist. This is one gambit I can start with your argument through juxtaposition, Benjamin. It beats getting befuddled with Stanley Fish ‘inter-textuality’ and the reader reading himself.” [John Walter, Comment 1, Benjamin & Work of Art,  Evans]

The hypertext-space of blog articles are driven by the brutal violence of links, juxtaposed subtly (too much?) in blue suggests a feeling of being depressed – yet it also suggests other states of emotion such as being active, dynamic, visited, anchored, floating. I am waiting to be ported somewhere, anywhere, but here. But where is here? That nagging question that all of the choreographers keep asking as we invent the universe.

These articles could be pseudo-autobiographical works-in-progress, where the (personification) of [artist] who creates one surfs the electrosphere for useful, samples it, manipulates it, remixes it, and then exhibits it in an mediated networked public that makes it feel like something more than just a diary website – the re-contextualization makes the simulacra real. This simulation is probably done in the trans-linguistic act of writing itself. The writing I speak of is more than just a diary entry with links to things I’ve found on the net and is more than just text. It is design-writing, video ecriture, mix-master-illogical mash-up audio, a color field of graphic disturbance in ascii. It is [sub]Verse-ive because it finally transcends or crowds out linear narrative – This is non-euclidean text space. Human portals are fine, they are even dandy — in fact, they may even end up being a kind of virtual dandyism strutting their stuff in net space — but they are not true blog. A true blog article is not true at all. It is pseudo. It is unreal. It is simulacra gone down the rabbit hole after Alice has taken the red pill.

Semanticwill-out. 04.19.2011 5:23:55am EST